Job Market Will be Destroyed

It is coming, and it is too late to stop. There is zero question as the the end game or at least the results. NOTHING can be done to stop it because it has already started. I don't give predictions often. But I did when it came to Google and their going public, I did when people laughed about the viability of YouTube, about the smart phone. I was not wrong on those and I am not wrong on this either.

Within 36 months the job market as you know will be decimated. By the end of this year we will see a 20% job loss, by the end of 2027 it will have increased to 45% and by the end of 2028 will reach a pinnacle of a total of nearly 75% of all jobs being gone and gone forever. Meaning when a factory worker gets laid off, they might want to look for another job, but there are no other jobs to be had. How is this going to happen and why?

It starts with AI. I will not go into a long story about AI but or reaching AGI or all that other jargon and all those buzz words. But let's be real AI is smater than you or I, and it is getting smarter every day. It is a fact that during this year it will become smarter than any human. Many AI experts say that before the end of 2026 it will be smarter than all humans combined.

So when it comes to decisions makers, jobs that require more brain than muscle such as white collar work, those positions surprisingly will be the first to go. What a strange change of roles historically that white collar will feel the pain before blue collar workers! This has already begun, for example there are no companies hiring junior developers. There are roughly 4 million developers that fit this role and they are being eliminated en masse due to AI and the efficiencies of using it. Then we have companies that need money to prepare for AI and the changes it will bring.

UPS aims to reduce their workforce by 30,000, they announced this month they are offering a $150k severance package for any driver willing to take early and retirement and quit now. Amazon laid off 14,000 workers in January and less than a month later announced they will be be laying off an additional 16,000 workers - totaling 30,000 job losses. Then we have blue collar, the cashiers, the factory workers, the phone support, the cashiers, the servers and generally anyone in the service industry.

The problem with AI is it is knowledge inside a computer, it can not move atoms, yet. The Tesla plant in Fremont has officially stopped producing cars at that location and has begun producing it's humanoid robot Optimus. This is not a toy nor a joke. The first batch that is produced will be replacing the humans at production facility to do what? To scale up and produce more robots, robots building robots. This has started already.

Robot production from Tesla alone is predicted to have exponential growth. The first batch will be say 10l units, which will produce batch 2 being 100k units, producing batch 3 being 1M, etc. The he skills of abilities are human like in nature. You want the robot to iron and fold your laundry the way your momma does? Just stand there and do it one time, the robot will watch and perfectly replicate the methods you demonstrated, learning from visions and it's array of cameras and microphones. Want it to make you your favorite Juevos Rancheros Mexican breakfast? Prepare it one time asking Optimus to watch you, tomorrow morning Optimus will make you Juevos Rancheros, just the same way you do!

But Optimus will be connected to the cloud. So if one Optimus robot learns how to make juevos rancheros, instantly they all know how to do this. So if you want a Broccoli Cheddar quiche but don't know how to make it, don't worry because your robot can now teach you or he can just do it for you! Like hive learning or Borg intelligence, right? Then there's the cost.

Estimates are that these robots are going to cost around $15,000. with costs falling dramatically as it scales. Sounds outrageous, right? Think of health care, for example in home providers that come simply to do minor housekeeping work for individuals with mobility issues. The state pays nearly the same cost for those people as what the robot would cost. The robot is capable of a 20 hour work day. So a factory that could replace 2 full time employees with robot. The robot does not have drama, does not get sick, is punctual, and has a perfect job assessemtn score on production quotas. Now you can see how factories are seeing the advantage. Combine the AI with the robots and you can understand there is no going back.

What does it all mean? What jobs are safe? How will humans adapt? What will we do if there are no jobs? These are some of the things I am interested in watching unfold. The re are 2 things I am certain of. The first is that there is not stopping it, it is a domino effect that started with AI, the pieces havc started to tumble and it is a chain reaction that can not be stopped. The second thing is the timeline, I said 36 months and told you why. Mark my words, it will be 36 months.